About Us

MD‑Konsult is an independent research firm based in Dallas. We publish deep dives on AI economics, GTM, and pricing for SaaS and SMB leaders.

Our Approach

Evidence‑backed insights for founders who care about ROI, not hype.

Showing posts with label American Airlines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American Airlines. Show all posts

Rolls-Royce Predicts that Flying Taxis will Be Fully In-Service In the Next Few Years

 

Read about our 4 trends: From Space Travel to Metaverse, 4 Trends that will shape 2022

Rolls-Royce, may be better known for expensive cars, like the Phantom, is also the engine maker for airplanes like the Airbus SE and Boeing Co. For past few years, Rolls-Royce has been developing electric propulsion aviation system and expects that fully-electric small aircraft taxis will be commercialized with in three to five years. 

Can Rolls-Royce stand behind these claims?


Ads help us serve our growing community.

Three years ago, when Rolls-Royce set out to build the world’s fastest electric aircraft, it teamed up with YASA, and aerospace engineering startup Electroflight. This led to genesis of Spirit of Innovation:

In 2021, Spirit of Innovation, a single-seat, electric-powered propeller plane, smashed the zero-emission speed record, hitting a top speed of ~556 kph (345 mph) over a distance of 3 kilometers.

The firm is now working to deliver two electric aviation propulsion systems: one for an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle, and another for a small commuter plane for Nordic regional airline Widerøe.

"Our focus at the moment is on urban air mobility: the eVTOL market with four to six passengers where we see viable product around 2025 and 2026," Spirit of Innovation head Matheu Parr told Fortune. "There's a market just behind that we call regional air mobility that would be fixed wing aircraft with nine to 19 seats and within that range we believe you can look at all-electric and hybrid-electric aircraft in 2028 to 2030."

How is Rolls-Royce planning to compete and win in this business?

Airline industry is one of the most competitive market, when it comes to margins. According to one report, "40 airlines failed in 2020". Outside the pandemic, one of the main cost factor is fuel. To address this primary factor, a slew of companies, ranging from startups to incumbents, are developing alternative source of power. These options include sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, hydrogen, fully electric, and hybrid-electric. 

Rolls-Royce’s electric propulsion system can be used by both eVTOLs and commuter aircraft. Additionally, Rolls-Royce plans to invest ~$105 million over the next decade to develop its electric flight business. In 2019 the firm also acquired Siemens eAircraft, which held the previous speed record.

The first commercial application of P-Volt, a battery electric system developed by Rolls-Royce, will have ~600 kilowatt hours of power, enabling flying 6-8 people ~80 nautical miles, Rob Watson, president of the company’s electrical division, shared in an interview.

“We are confident in the technology. Now we need to scale it so it can have a meaningful economic influence,” Watson added. “I think that’s where you see urban air mobility and regional air mobility, aircraft with 8-18 seats, becoming a real possibility in the next three to five years.” 

What's next for Rolls-Royce?

Rolls-Royce is working with suppliers for battery cells, as it approaches the crucial stage of certification, Watson said. While Rolls-Royce will design and assemble the packs, it won’t manufacture battery cells, he said.

“We need to make supply selection decisions in the next year, year and a half,” Watson said. “We’re making decisions about our strategic suppliers this year.”

“Batteries are not yet on par with jet fuel in terms of energy density, but they are sufficient for up to 100 nautical miles, a far enough range to enable air taxi services for suburban and metropolitan destinations,” Parr said. “To fly four to six passengers that distance, our math says, you need battery packs that are about 200-220 Wh/kg,” Parr estimated. 

Share:

By 2023, Flying Taxis Will Probably Become The Preferred Mode Of Travel


2021 has been a remarkable year for the electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOL) industry, which saw 5 companies go public through SPAC mergers, at valuations between $1 billion and $2 billion. 


Video summary of the article:


Ads help us serve our growing community.
Several frontrunners are targeting scaled production and regulatory approvals by 2023, if not sooner. Some eVTOL's in the US, that do not require a pilot license, are already available for pre-order. As of 2021, the six most promising companies in this space are:

  • Kitty Hawk - Capacity: Single Seat
  • Wisk Aero—Cora - Capacity: Two Passengers
  • Archer Aviation—Maker - Capacity: Four Passengers
  • Joby Aviation—S4 - Capacity: Four Passengers
  • SkyDive (Japan)— SD-03 - Capacity: Single Seat
  • Jetson Aero (Sweden)—Jetson one - Capacity: Single Seat
What are some of these companies bringing to the table?
  • Kitty Hawk is probably the oldest kid on the block, when it comes to eVTOL's. It was established almost 10 years ago, by Google cofounder Larry Page. Kitty Hawk tops out at 100 mph, and is targeting a range of 100 miles. It is also intended to be fully autonomous i.e no pilot required.
  • Cora, a product from Wisk Aero, is also intended to be fully autonomous. Wisk’s goal is to build an eVTOL that can be used as an urban air taxi, at a price comparable to Uber X ($4 - $8 per passenger mile).
  • Archer Aviation has an ambitious timeline to start volume production as soon as 2023. The company completed its first hover test flight at an undisclosed location in California.
  • Joby Aviation, acquired Uber’s flying car division (Uber Elevate) in 2020. Joby’s S4 prototype, is a piloted aircraft and can fly up to 4 passengers for 150 miles, on a single charge. 
How are Airplane industry players dealing with new competition?

The Airplane manufacturers and service provides, are not sitting still and watching the new kids eat their lunches. As the saying goes, if you can't beat them join them. That's almost what's happening here:

Boeing has agreed to invest $450 million in Wisk Aero. The funding round is one of the largest in the nascent industry.

Airbus SE and Embraer SA, are building their own offerings. The U.S. Air Force has even gotten into the action and is developing flying taxis for military use, according to WSJ.

Archer Aviation has already sold $1 billion worth of pre-orders to United Airlines.

American Airlines has placed a conditional order for up to 250 of UK based Vertical Aerospace's prototype aircraft, at $4 million each. Virgin Atlantic has placed an order for 150 aircrafts and aircraft leasing company Avolon has pre-ordered 500 eVTOLs.

How are the certifications coming along?

For eVTOLs to be deployed commercially at scale, three aviation regulatory approvals will be required: 
  1. Type (manufacturing design)
  2. Production (scale production)
  3. Operational (commercial)
In the US, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working to adapt existing aviation regulations to accommodate eVTOL technology.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), is drafting regulations, along with a new eVTOL certification framework. As a result, there will be a new set of rules, with incorporation of existing regulations where possible.

The so what of all this?

Our traveling habits are about to undergo a serious face lift - think going from wired lines to wireless communications. This provides an opportunity for new business and services to get formed.
Share: